GWOT VI - Brief Doc
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drewkittyGWOT VI - Brief Doc
HEADER - SPECIAL CONTROL
TS/SCI
Secure Compartmentalized Intelligence
Keyword Corndog
DECLASS / By Order Of POTUS
For Release To
Republic of California
This document has been sanitized as to sources and methods.
Collections Operational Intelligence
Need To Know
California Expeditionary Force
This document is under special release conditions. Members of the California Expeditionary Force are authorized to review this document. The classifying authority for this document is Major Echo 18, Commander, UNNAPD Detachment, Iowa Expedition. He may release this document further with the headers redacted at his discretion. Under no circumstances will the headers be released to American forces or to public release.
END HEADER - SPECIAL CONTROL
Executive Summary
A general state of lawlessness and chaos exists in the American state of Iowa today. The Chinese nuclear attack on the cities of the American Mid West created hundreds of thousands of refugees from each of the following cities: Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Denver. The refugees with job skills, perhaps a third, were drafted or resettled swiftly. The remainder - estimated at over 2.5 million - drifted into neighboring states. Iowa alone has attempted to absorb over one million refugees.
With many of the forces of law and order in Iowa drafted into the Firecracker War, Homeland and continuing efforts to restore domestic civil order, it was believed that the rise of fundamentalist churches - faith based organizations - would help to maintain tranquilty in this important food producing state.
This was a major error.
The refugees have been encamped on the outskirts of each major Iowa city. A token effort was made to assimilate some of them - notably those of Christian belief - into Iowa communities. However, many refugees, especially those from Cleveland and Chicago, have been surviving on charitable food aid for several months. As is true elsewhere in America, the Federal government has been completely unable to provide further relief.
The food aid is starting to dwindle to a halt with increased food and oil prices and decreased yields from years of over production and an end to Federally subsidized soil banking. While settled persons in Iowa are in no danger of starvation, high prices have forced families to make major diet changes - i.e. meat weekly rather than with every meal. Key diet items such as vitamins and infant formula have skyrocketed in price with the enormous imbalance of trade with other nations and the need to import from Europe only through third parties due to the continuing international embargoes.
The fundamentalist churches are the primary political power in Iowa. The legacy Governor of Iowa is expected to be soundly defeated in the next election, should one be held, and his Iowa National Guard as well as the state police have little authority outside Des Moines itself.
A marked increase in both behavior and rhetoric has made it clear that the fundmentalist churches, in their own words, "intend to drive these anti American refugees out of God's country, by any means necessary." Before the FBI was forced to withdraw its presence from the state, Department of Justice observers documented in a three week period over three hundred separate incidents totaling over fifteen hundred homicides of non-Iowa residents in Iowa. The intensity and scope of this violence is escalating, both under color of law and outside the law, with petty theft now punishable by death in the majority of Iowa counties.
However, the immediate threat to human life is the refusal to sell food, the denial of further food aid, and the confiscation of food both from humanitarian relief organizations and directly from refugees themselves.
The primary military threat is from the network of churches self identified as Army of God. AoG (see Appendix for order of battle) is now fielding company sized military units, conducting advanced officer training, and training both armor and artillery units.
A rag-tag array of militias, private social clubs, "State Police Reserve" units, church-aligned "self defense" organizations and most worrisome, entire formed Iowa National Guard units are also a significant military factor. It is not clear that even their own leadership can exercise operational control over them.
The security situation has deteriorated to the point that a major military intervention would be required to attempt to restore order. US Army forces are already heavily overcommitted in defending our weakened national borders, especially with California and Texas, and fighting small scale insurgencies nationwide (cf the Dakotas, Tennessee, Georgia, West Virginia, Florida) and no further resources are available to spare for Iowa.
Therefore it has been most reluctantly decided to accept the offers of several other nations as well as one rebel state - California - in attempting to stave off 1) famine and 2) genocide. The latter has committed that under no conditions will California forces interfere with any US attempts to restore order, and that California will withdraw her forces when and if order is restored. Conversely, California has made it clear that she is unable to accept resettlement of refugees even for humanitarian reasons.
[Collections Note: a paragraph of this summary was excised from the version released to California. It is relayed here in paraphrase.]
_US Federal military and civilian observers now have hard troubles doing stuff in Iowa. A Special Forces "A" team working outside Davenport to try to get refugees to defend themselves was destroyed by Army of God internal security troops. Only deep cover agents have been able to remain in place, and even they have limited comms. Moscow Rules apply._
[End paraphrase.]
If no action is taken, it is expected (confidence 70% plus minus 5%) that the majority of the refugees will starve, be murdered, or fall ill and die within thirty to ninety days. Children and elderly will be the first to die, possibly in as little as three weeks. It is expected that the refugees will at some point start to meaningfully resist, and in doing so inflict additional casualties not only on their attackers but on any civilians in reach. Beyond a certain point, it is not clear that peace will again be possible without a complete separation of Christian fundamentalist communities from any and all outsiders.
For historical parallels, CF Cambodia, Rwanda, and "Bloody Kansas" in the Civil War period. [And the so-called 'Indian Wars' in which the native peoples of the Americas were reduced by the post Civil War Union Army - Collections Intelligence.]
End Executive Summary
[Document continues for seventy pages, outlining information on the major factions, the locations of major refugee encampments, the attitudes and capabilities of various aligned and non-aligned forces, and details regarding the political situation of the Governor of Iowa vis-a-vis the fundamentalist coalitions. As appropriate certain details have been paraphrased twice, both by American intelligence and then by Collections Intelligence. Use care in reliance on specifics and verify facts on the ground whenever possible.]
HEADER - SPECIAL CONTROL
TS/SCI
Secure Compartmentalized Intelligence
Keyword Corndog
DECLASS / By Order Of POTUS
For Release To
Republic of California
This document has been sanitized as to sources and methods.
Collections Operational Intelligence
Need To Know
California Expeditionary Force
This document is under special release conditions. Members of the California Expeditionary Force are authorized to review this document. The classifying authority for this document is Major Echo 18, Commander, UNNAPD Detachment, Iowa Expedition. He may release this document further with the headers redacted at his discretion. Under no circumstances will the headers be released to American forces or to public release.
END HEADER - SPECIAL CONTROL
Executive Summary
A general state of lawlessness and chaos exists in the American state of Iowa today. The Chinese nuclear attack on the cities of the American Mid West created hundreds of thousands of refugees from each of the following cities: Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Denver. The refugees with job skills, perhaps a third, were drafted or resettled swiftly. The remainder - estimated at over 2.5 million - drifted into neighboring states. Iowa alone has attempted to absorb over one million refugees.
With many of the forces of law and order in Iowa drafted into the Firecracker War, Homeland and continuing efforts to restore domestic civil order, it was believed that the rise of fundamentalist churches - faith based organizations - would help to maintain tranquilty in this important food producing state.
This was a major error.
The refugees have been encamped on the outskirts of each major Iowa city. A token effort was made to assimilate some of them - notably those of Christian belief - into Iowa communities. However, many refugees, especially those from Cleveland and Chicago, have been surviving on charitable food aid for several months. As is true elsewhere in America, the Federal government has been completely unable to provide further relief.
The food aid is starting to dwindle to a halt with increased food and oil prices and decreased yields from years of over production and an end to Federally subsidized soil banking. While settled persons in Iowa are in no danger of starvation, high prices have forced families to make major diet changes - i.e. meat weekly rather than with every meal. Key diet items such as vitamins and infant formula have skyrocketed in price with the enormous imbalance of trade with other nations and the need to import from Europe only through third parties due to the continuing international embargoes.
The fundamentalist churches are the primary political power in Iowa. The legacy Governor of Iowa is expected to be soundly defeated in the next election, should one be held, and his Iowa National Guard as well as the state police have little authority outside Des Moines itself.
A marked increase in both behavior and rhetoric has made it clear that the fundmentalist churches, in their own words, "intend to drive these anti American refugees out of God's country, by any means necessary." Before the FBI was forced to withdraw its presence from the state, Department of Justice observers documented in a three week period over three hundred separate incidents totaling over fifteen hundred homicides of non-Iowa residents in Iowa. The intensity and scope of this violence is escalating, both under color of law and outside the law, with petty theft now punishable by death in the majority of Iowa counties.
However, the immediate threat to human life is the refusal to sell food, the denial of further food aid, and the confiscation of food both from humanitarian relief organizations and directly from refugees themselves.
The primary military threat is from the network of churches self identified as Army of God. AoG (see Appendix for order of battle) is now fielding company sized military units, conducting advanced officer training, and training both armor and artillery units.
A rag-tag array of militias, private social clubs, "State Police Reserve" units, church-aligned "self defense" organizations and most worrisome, entire formed Iowa National Guard units are also a significant military factor. It is not clear that even their own leadership can exercise operational control over them.
The security situation has deteriorated to the point that a major military intervention would be required to attempt to restore order. US Army forces are already heavily overcommitted in defending our weakened national borders, especially with California and Texas, and fighting small scale insurgencies nationwide (cf the Dakotas, Tennessee, Georgia, West Virginia, Florida) and no further resources are available to spare for Iowa.
Therefore it has been most reluctantly decided to accept the offers of several other nations as well as one rebel state - California - in attempting to stave off 1) famine and 2) genocide. The latter has committed that under no conditions will California forces interfere with any US attempts to restore order, and that California will withdraw her forces when and if order is restored. Conversely, California has made it clear that she is unable to accept resettlement of refugees even for humanitarian reasons.
[Collections Note: a paragraph of this summary was excised from the version released to California. It is relayed here in paraphrase.]
_US Federal military and civilian observers now have hard troubles doing stuff in Iowa. A Special Forces "A" team working outside Davenport to try to get refugees to defend themselves was destroyed by Army of God internal security troops. Only deep cover agents have been able to remain in place, and even they have limited comms. Moscow Rules apply._
[End paraphrase.]
If no action is taken, it is expected (confidence 70% plus minus 5%) that the majority of the refugees will starve, be murdered, or fall ill and die within thirty to ninety days. Children and elderly will be the first to die, possibly in as little as three weeks. It is expected that the refugees will at some point start to meaningfully resist, and in doing so inflict additional casualties not only on their attackers but on any civilians in reach. Beyond a certain point, it is not clear that peace will again be possible without a complete separation of Christian fundamentalist communities from any and all outsiders.
For historical parallels, CF Cambodia, Rwanda, and "Bloody Kansas" in the Civil War period. [And the so-called 'Indian Wars' in which the native peoples of the Americas were reduced by the post Civil War Union Army - Collections Intelligence.]
End Executive Summary
[Document continues for seventy pages, outlining information on the major factions, the locations of major refugee encampments, the attitudes and capabilities of various aligned and non-aligned forces, and details regarding the political situation of the Governor of Iowa vis-a-vis the fundamentalist coalitions. As appropriate certain details have been paraphrased twice, both by American intelligence and then by Collections Intelligence. Use care in reliance on specifics and verify facts on the ground whenever possible.]
